Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raith Rovers vs Stirling Albion — League Cup 2018

Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
7/16/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 5Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Raith Rovers57%
×Draw21%
Stirling Albion22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raith Rovers
2.15
Stirling Albion
1.27

Raith Rovers creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Raith Rovers
2.58
Stirling Albion
1.29

allows per match

Raith Rovers
1.25
Stirling Albion
1.71

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw
78%
Raith Rovers or Stirling Albion
79%
Draw or Stirling Albion
43%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+
35%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals
88%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
63%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
36%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
72%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
36%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
72%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.58 + Stirling Albion defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.15

Stirling Albion attack 1.29 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Raith Rovers scores more
57%
level
21%
Stirling Albion scores more
22%

Raith Rovers at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raith Rovers vs Stirling Albion

Raith Rovers and Stirling Albion drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stark's Park in Kirkcaldy.