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Stirling Albion vs Peterhead — League Two 2018

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Peterhead
Peterhead
3/22/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Stirling Albion33%
×Draw26%
Peterhead41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
1.27
Peterhead
1.43

Peterhead creates 13% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 54 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
1.33
Peterhead
1.52

allows per match

Stirling Albion
1.33
Peterhead
1.22

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Peterhead →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
59%
Stirling Albion or Peterhead
74%
Draw or Peterhead
67%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
14%
Peterhead wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
72%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
36%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
14%
Peterhead 1+ goals
76%
Peterhead 2+ goals
42%
Peterhead 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
45%
Peterhead (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 116 matches

Peterhead away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 1.33 + Peterhead defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Peterhead attack 1.52 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
33%
level
26%
Peterhead scores more
41%

Peterhead at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Stirling Albion 1–2 Peterhead

Peterhead beat Stirling Albion 2-1 in League Two on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.