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Peterhead vs Stirling Albion — League Two 2018

Peterhead
Peterhead
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
1/18/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 21Balmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Peterhead47%
×Draw26%
Stirling Albion27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
1.52
Stirling Albion
1.09

Peterhead creates 39% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 117 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.72
Stirling Albion
1.40

allows per match

Peterhead
0.78
Stirling Albion
1.32

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
73%
Peterhead or Stirling Albion
74%
Draw or Stirling Albion
53%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
24%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
78%
Peterhead 2+ goals
45%
Peterhead 3+ goals
20%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
66%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
30%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
63%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.78 · 54 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.32 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.72 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stirling Albion attack 1.40 + Peterhead defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Peterhead scores more
47%
level
26%
Stirling Albion scores more
27%

Peterhead at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Peterhead 3–2 Stirling Albion

Peterhead beat Stirling Albion 3-2 in League Two on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Balmoor Stadium in Peterhead.