Stirling Albion 0–1 Peterhead: Result & Stats

Stirling Albion

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peterhead

R. McAllister 34'

2/23/2019

League Two · Round 26Forthbank Stadium (Stirling)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Stirling Albion34%

×Draw26%

Peterhead40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling AlbionExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.41

Stirling Albion

1.28

Peterhead

1.41

Peterhead creates 10% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 53 away

1.33

creates per match

1.49

1.33

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Stirling Albion

1.33

Peterhead

1.49

allows per match

Stirling Albion

1.33

Peterhead

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Peterhead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw

60%

Stirling Albion or Peterhead

74%

Draw or Peterhead

66%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

15%

Peterhead wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

72%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

37%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

14%

Peterhead 1+ goals

76%

Peterhead 2+ goals

41%

Peterhead 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

46%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 116 matches

Peterhead away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 1.33 + Peterhead defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Peterhead attack 1.49 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stirling Albion scores more

34%

level

26%

Peterhead scores more

40%

Peterhead at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

R. McAllister

68'

P. Willis← R. Dow

73'

D. Lyle← R. McAllister

79'

D. Docherty← R. Hughes

79'

J. Leitch← S. Sutherland

83'

C. Thomson← J. Allan

84'

M. Ashmore← M. Wright

Stirling

Peterhead

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

79'▲D. Docherty←▼R. Hughes

83'▲C. Thomson←▼J. Allan

84'▲M. Ashmore←▼M. Wright

Stirling Albion substitutes

DochertyThomsonAshmoreBinnieMcLearMcLaughlinMacDonald

Manager: J. McInally

68'▲P. Willis←▼R. Dow

73'▲D. Lyle←▼R. McAllister

79'▲J. Leitch←▼S. Sutherland

Peterhead substitutes

WillisLyleLeitchEadieHomeWilloxHenderson