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Stirling Albion vs Montrose — League Cup 2026

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Montrose
Montrose
B. Lyons 30'
E. Loudon 28' (pen)
7/18/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageForthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stirling Albion35%
×Draw23%
Montrose42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
1.63
Montrose
1.80

Montrose creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
0.93
Montrose
1.33

allows per match

Stirling Albion
2.27
Montrose
2.33

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Montrose+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Montrose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
58%
Stirling Albion or Montrose
77%
Draw or Montrose
65%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
17%
Montrose wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
80%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
48%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
22%
Montrose 1+ goals
83%
Montrose 2+ goals
54%
Montrose 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
46%
Montrose (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Montrose away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.93 + Montrose defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Montrose attack 1.33 + Stirling Albion defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
35%
level
23%
Montrose scores more
42%

Montrose at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
E. LoudonPenalty
28'
S. Denham
30'
B. Lyons↳ S. McGinty
64'
M. Russell← Z. Cameron
64'
L. Fyfe← J. Allan
70'
G. Oliver← J. Barjonas
71'
K. Waugh← L. Hamilton
72'
H. Wright← R. McLean
72'
M. Thomas← R. Raine
79'
R. Clark← S. Byrne
85'
R. McNab
90'
K. Bertie← B. Lyons

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Stirling Albion 0–2 Montrose

Montrose beat Stirling Albion 2-0 in League Cup on July 18, 2026.

Goals: E. Loudon (28' pen), B. Lyons (30').

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.