Montrose 0–1 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Montrose

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stirling Albion

C. Crane 69'

1/13/2024

League #183 · Round 21Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Montrose45%

×Draw25%

Stirling Albion30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontroseExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.21

Montrose

1.56

Stirling Albion

1.21

Montrose creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.46

creates per match

0.33

2.08

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Montrose

1.46

Stirling Albion

0.33

allows per match

Montrose

2.08

Stirling Albion

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Montrose or draw

70%

Montrose or Stirling Albion

75%

Draw or Stirling Albion

55%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+

23%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals

79%

Montrose 2+ goals

46%

Montrose 3+ goals

21%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

70%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

34%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)

61%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.46 + Stirling Albion defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Stirling Albion attack 0.33 + Montrose defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Montrose scores more

45%

level

25%

Stirling Albion scores more

30%

Montrose at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

D. Hilson

63'

C. Brown← P. Watson

63'

C. Batchelor← B. Hermiston

69'

C. Crane

74'

L. Callaghan← A. Shrive

74'

74'

79'

90+3'

90+6'

90+4'

A. Dunsmore← K. Moore

90'

R. McGeachie← D. Carrick

Montrose

Stirling

1

4

6

5

30

⚽

12

3

24

11

▼

Moore

25

▼

Hilson

9

▼

1

14

3

2

4

18

▼

Graham

8

▼

Watson

7

Webster

11

Lyons

12

▼

Hermiston

17

▼

Shrive

Manager: S. Petrie

63'▲C. Brown←▼P. Watson

63'▲C. Batchelor←▼B. Hermiston

74'▲L. Callaghan←▼A. Shrive

74'▲H. Craig←▼L. Graham

Montrose substitutes

22Brown16Batchelor19Callaghan20Craig5Paton21Matthews6Bradford15Cochrane

Manager: D. Young

74'▲K. Offord←▼D. Hilson

90+4'▲A. Dunsmore←▼K. Moore

90'▲R. McGeachie←▼D. Carrick

Stirling Albion substitutes

19Offord7Dunsmore2McGeachie16Wilson21Cooper20Miller22Spence17White