Stirling Albion 0–0 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Stirling Albion

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inverness CT

7/18/2017

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Forthbank Stadium (Stirling)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stirling Albion36%

×Draw23%

Inverness CT41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling AlbionExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.76

Stirling Albion

1.63

Inverness CT

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.93

creates per match

1.13

2.40

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Stirling Albion

0.93

Inverness CT

1.13

allows per match

Stirling Albion

2.40

Inverness CT

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw

59%

Stirling Albion or Inverness CT

77%

Draw or Inverness CT

64%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

18%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

80%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

48%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

22%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

83%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

52%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

47%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.93 + Inverness CT defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Inverness CT attack 1.13 + Stirling Albion defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stirling Albion scores more

36%

level

23%

Inverness CT scores more

41%

Inverness CT at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

J. Chalmers← J. Mulraney

53'

F. Zschusschen← G. Oakley

68'

R. Kavanagh← P. MacDonald

70'

L. Caddis← L. Hamilton

78'

M. Elsdon← G. Warren

84'

C. McMullan← W. Robertson

Stirling

Inverness

28

Ridgers

5

▼

22

17

11

8

7

16

15

▼

Mulraney

9

Baird

14

▼

1

3

5

2

4

▼

Hamilton

6

Black

16

Dickson

8

▼

Robertson

10

Smith

9

▼

MacDonald

7

Morrison

Manager: D. MacKay

68'▲R. Kavanagh←▼P. MacDonald

70'▲L. Caddis←▼L. Hamilton

84'▲C. McMullan←▼W. Robertson

Stirling Albion substitutes

11Kavanagh18Caddis15McMullan17Foden14Banner19Henderson12Davidson

Manager: J. Robertson

27'▲J. Chalmers←▼J. Mulraney

53'▲F. Zschusschen←▼G. Oakley

78'▲M. Elsdon←▼G. Warren

Inverness CT substitutes

4Chalmers19Zschusschen6Elsdon44MacDonald1Esson2Raven