Inverness CT 3–2 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Inverness CT

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Stirling Albion

A. Doran 69'

M. Ram 40'

W. Duffy 31'

D. Carrick 45+1', 27'

11/26/2022

FA Cup · 3rd RoundTulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inverness CT45%

×Draw24%

Stirling Albion31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverness CTExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.36

Inverness CT

1.68

Stirling Albion

1.36

Inverness CT creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

1.60

1.13

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Inverness CT

1.75

Stirling Albion

1.60

allows per match

Inverness CT

1.13

Stirling Albion

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw

69%

Inverness CT or Stirling Albion

76%

Draw or Stirling Albion

55%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+

23%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals

81%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

50%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

24%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

74%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

39%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

59%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.75 + Stirling Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Stirling Albion attack 1.60 + Inverness CT defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inverness CT scores more

45%

level

24%

Stirling Albion scores more

31%

Inverness CT at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

R. Davidson← K. Banner

27'

D. Carrick↳ K. Fotheringham

31'

W. Duffy↳ N. Shaw

40'

M. Ram↳ B. McKay

45+1'

D. Carrick

60'

G. Oakley← S. Boyd

64'

D. Mackay← B. McKay

69'

A. Doran↳ N. Shaw

71'

M. Ram

72'

K. Moore← J. Leitch

72'

R. Thomson← D. Denholm

81'

82'

87'

88'

90+2'

Inverness

Stirling

1

4

2

5

7

12

▼

Banner

11

▼

Denholm

10

▼

Leitch

18

▼

Clark

9

⚽2

Carrick

19

A

Fothering

21

Mackay

6

Devine

2

⚽

Duffy

15

⚽

▼

Ram

3

Harper

22

A

Shaw

16

Hyde

8

Carson

10

⚽

Doran

9

A

▼

McKay

30

▼

Boyd

Manager: B. Dodds

60'▲G. Oakley←▼S. Boyd

64'▲D. Mackay←▼B. McKay

81'▲R. Barrett←▼M. Ram

Inverness CT substitutes

14Oakley17Mackay13Barrett1Ridgers35MacKay37Nicolson34Strachan

Manager: D. Young

22'▲R. Davidson←▼K. Banner

72'▲K. Moore←▼J. Leitch

72'▲R. Thomson←▼D. Denholm

82'▲J. Cooper←▼H. Clark

Stirling Albion substitutes

8Davidson15Moore23Thomson21Cooper17Law14Burns

FA Cup: Inverness CT 3–2 Stirling Albion

Inverness CT beat Stirling Albion 3-2 in FA Cup on November 26, 2022.

Goals: D. Carrick (27', 45+1'), W. Duffy (31'), M. Ram (40'), A. Doran (69').

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.

Inverness CT vs Stirling Albion — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Inverness CT 3–2 Stirling Albion