Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stirling Albion vs Dunfermline — League #180 2026

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
3/15/2011League #180League #180 · Round 6Forthbank Stadium (Stirling)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stirling Albion30%
×Draw37%
Dunfermline33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
0.71
Dunfermline
0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
0.33
Dunfermline
0.54

allows per match

Stirling Albion
1.00
Dunfermline
1.08

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Dunfermline →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–118%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
67%
Stirling Albion or Dunfermline
63%
Draw or Dunfermline
70%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
9%
Dunfermline wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
51%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
16%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
4%
Dunfermline 1+ goals
54%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
18%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
47%
Dunfermline (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.33 + Dunfermline defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.71

Dunfermline attack 0.54 + Stirling Albion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
30%
level
37%
Dunfermline scores more
33%

Dunfermline at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling Albion vs Dunfermline

Stirling Albion and Dunfermline drew 1-1 in League #180 on March 15, 2011.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium (Stirling).