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Dunfermline vs Stirling Albion — League Cup 2018

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
7/28/2018League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 8East End Park (Dunfermline)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dunfermline64%
×Draw19%
Stirling Albion16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunfermline
2.26
Stirling Albion
1.05

Dunfermline creates 115% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dunfermline
2.82
Stirling Albion
1.29

allows per match

Dunfermline
0.82
Stirling Albion
1.71

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw
84%
Dunfermline or Stirling Albion
81%
Draw or Stirling Albion
36%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+
41%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals
89%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
66%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
39%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
65%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
28%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)
80%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.82, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.82 + Stirling Albion defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.26

Stirling Albion attack 1.29 + Dunfermline defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dunfermline scores more
64%
level
19%
Stirling Albion scores more
16%

Dunfermline at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Stirling Albion

Dunfermline beat Stirling Albion 3-1 in League Cup on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at East End Park (Dunfermline).