Stirling Albion 2–2 Dumbarton: Result & Stats

Stirling Albion

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dumbarton

R. Cunningham 71' (pen)

R. Shanley 40'

G. Walker 79'

S. Honeyman 14'

10/4/2025

League Two · Round 9Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Stirling Albion41%

×Draw25%

Dumbarton34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling AlbionExpected goals in this matchDumbarton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.33

Stirling Albion

1.47

Dumbarton

1.33

Stirling Albion creates 11% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 55 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Stirling Albion

1.33

Dumbarton

1.33

allows per match

Stirling Albion

1.33

Dumbarton

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Dumbarton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw

66%

Stirling Albion or Dumbarton

75%

Draw or Dumbarton

59%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

19%

Dumbarton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

77%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

43%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

18%

Dumbarton 1+ goals

74%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

38%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

54%

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 116 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 1.33 + Dumbarton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Dumbarton attack 1.33 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stirling Albion scores more

41%

level

25%

Dumbarton scores more

34%

Stirling Albion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

S. Honeyman↳ K. Webster

33'

40'

61'

63'

68'

S. Tomlinson← K. Kirkpatrick

68'

A. Roy← T. Wallace

71'

R. CunninghamPenalty

72'

S. Kelly

76'

C. Johnston← L. McIntosh

76'

G. Walker← R. Blair

79'

G. Walker↳ A. Livingstone

85'

A. Brown← C. Eadie

85'

K. Thomson← J. Harkness

Stirling

Dumbarton

28

Kelly

2

Lynas

4

A

Webster

23

Neill

14

A

Livingsto

18

Docherty

6

▼

Blair

11

▼

Wallace

21

⚽

Honeyman

15

▼

McIntosh

27

▼

Kirkpatri

1

Gaston

22

▼

2

6

30

23

8

10

⚽

Cunningha

25

▼

Hilson

9

A

▼

Eadie

29

⚽

Shanley

Manager: Alan Paul Maybury

63'▲R. McLean←▼D. Hilson

85'▲A. Brown←▼C. Eadie

85'▲K. Thomson←▼J. Harkness

Stirling Albion substitutes

31Duffy5McNab7Thomson11Brown15Hodgkiss17McLean21Featherstone24Thomson32Campbell

Manager: Stephen Edward Farrell

68'▲S. Tomlinson←▼K. Kirkpatrick

68'▲A. Roy←▼T. Wallace

76'▲C. Johnston←▼L. McIntosh

76'▲G. Walker←▼R. Blair

Dumbarton substitutes

19Ecrepont7Tomlinson10RoyGilfedder17Falconer20McArthur22Johnston25Walker

League Two: Stirling Albion 2–2 Dumbarton

Stirling Albion and Dumbarton drew 2-2 in League Two on October 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Honeyman (14'), R. Shanley (40'), R. Cunningham (71' pen), G. Walker (79').

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.

Stirling Albion vs Dumbarton — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Stirling Albion 2–2 Dumbarton