Dumbarton 2–1 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stirling Albion

S. Honeyman 79'

S. Tomlinson 39'

D. Hilson 54'

4/11/2026

League Two · Round 33Dumbarton Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dumbarton41%

×Draw26%

Stirling Albion33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.21

Dumbarton

1.39

Stirling Albion

1.21

Dumbarton creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 117 away

1.45

creates per match

1.40

1.02

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Dumbarton

1.45

Stirling Albion

1.40

allows per match

Dumbarton

1.02

Stirling Albion

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

67%

Dumbarton or Stirling Albion

74%

Draw or Stirling Albion

59%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

19%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

75%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

40%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

16%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

70%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

34%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

56%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.32 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 1.45 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stirling Albion attack 1.40 + Dumbarton defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dumbarton scores more

41%

level

26%

Stirling Albion scores more

33%

Dumbarton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dumbarton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

S. Tomlinson↳ L. McIntosh

46'

J. Duncan← S. Tomlinson

54'

D. Hilson↳ M. Carse

64'

C. Campbell

70'

A. Cannon← C. Campbell

74'

M. Russell← D. Hilson

75'

K. Kirkpatrick← A. Livingstone

79'

S. Honeyman

85'

D. Wells

89'

C. Thomson← D. Wells

89'

A. Laird← L. Hamilton

89'

90+5'

90+5'

90+5'

Dumbarton

Stirling

31

Duffy

23

Hutchinso

4

▼

Hamilton

16

Denham

32

▼

Campbell

6

Banner

5

McNab

22

▼

Wells

8

A

▼

Carse

25

⚽

▼

17

19

4

5

3

24

22

8

14

▼

Livingsto

21

⚽

Honeyman

7

⚽

▼

Tomlinson

15

A

McIntosh

46'▲J. Duncan←▼S. Tomlinson

75'▲K. Kirkpatrick←▼A. Livingstone

Dumbarton substitutes

1Long6Blair9Duncan10Roy11Wallace12Brown16Joseph25Walker27Kirkpatrick

Manager: Alan Maybury

70'▲A. Cannon←▼C. Campbell

74'▲M. Russell←▼D. Hilson

89'▲C. Thomson←▼D. Wells

89'▲A. Laird←▼L. Hamilton

89'▲J. Fleming←▼M. Carse

Stirling Albion substitutes

7Thomson10Russell11Laird12Knox18Welsh19Fleming28Cannon34Kerr1Gaston