Stirling Albion 0–2 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Stirling Albion

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cove Rangers

C. Scully 50'

M. Doyle 10'

11/25/2023

FA Cup · 3rd RoundForthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stirling Albion55%

×Draw23%

Cove Rangers22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling AlbionExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.07

Stirling Albion

1.85

Cove Rangers

1.07

Stirling Albion creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Stirling Albion

2.00

Cove Rangers

1.14

allows per match

Stirling Albion

1.00

Cove Rangers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw

78%

Stirling Albion or Cove Rangers

77%

Draw or Cove Rangers

45%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

32%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

84%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

55%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

28%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

66%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

29%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

72%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 2.00 + Cove Rangers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Cove Rangers attack 1.14 + Stirling Albion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stirling Albion scores more

55%

level

23%

Cove Rangers scores more

22%

Stirling Albion at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

12'

50'

55'

64'

69'

69'

76'

M. Niang← J. Kerr

76'

S. Williamson← K. Connell

82'

A. Darge← P. McGowan

Stirling

Cove

1

Suman

26

Reynolds

3

⚽

Doyle

17

▼

Kerr

2

Jones

6

Gillingha

7

▼

McGowan

8

A

Yule

4

⚽A

Scully

11

▼

10

27

4

2

5

3

16

▼

Wilson

10

Leitch

11

Moore

20

▼

Miller

23

Thomson

9

Carrick

Manager: D. Young

69'▲K. Banner←▼M. Miller

69'▲J. Cooper←▼E. Wilson

Stirling Albion substitutes

12Banner21Cooper19Omobude15Rennie1Currie18Isaac7Dunsmore

Manager: P. Hartley

76'▲M. Niang←▼J. Kerr

76'▲S. Williamson←▼K. Connell

82'▲A. Darge←▼P. McGowan

Cove Rangers substitutes

5Niang29Williamson15Darge18Mykyta27Stewart22Gallagher21Demus