Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cove Rangers vs Stirling Albion — League Two 2018

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
11/9/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cove Rangers61%
×Draw21%
Stirling Albion18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cove Rangers
1.98
Stirling Albion
0.95

Cove Rangers creates 108% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 117 away

creates per match

Cove Rangers
2.64
Stirling Albion
1.40

allows per match

Cove Rangers
0.50
Stirling Albion
1.32

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw
82%
Cove Rangers or Stirling Albion
79%
Draw or Stirling Albion
39%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+
37%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals
86%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
59%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
31%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
61%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
25%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
78%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.32 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 2.64 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.98

Stirling Albion attack 1.40 + Cove Rangers defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cove Rangers scores more
61%
level
21%
Stirling Albion scores more
18%

Cove Rangers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Cove Rangers 1–0 Stirling Albion

Cove Rangers beat Stirling Albion 1-0 in League Two on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.