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Stirling Albion vs Brechin — League Two 2018

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
CANC
00:00
Brechin
Brechin
4/25/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stirling Albion50%
×Draw24%
Brechin26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
1.74
Brechin
1.19

Stirling Albion creates 46% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 26 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
1.33
Brechin
1.04

allows per match

Stirling Albion
1.33
Brechin
2.15

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
74%
Stirling Albion or Brechin
76%
Draw or Brechin
50%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
27%
Brechin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
82%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
52%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
25%
Brechin 1+ goals
70%
Brechin 2+ goals
33%
Brechin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
66%
Brechin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 116 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 1.33 + Brechin defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Brechin attack 1.04 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
50%
level
24%
Brechin scores more
26%

Stirling Albion at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stirling Albion face Brechin (League Two)

League Two returns with Stirling Albion hosting Brechin. Match starts April 25, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stirling Albion host Brechin at Forthbank Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.