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Brechin vs Stirling Albion — League Two 2018

Brechin
Brechin
CANC
14:00
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
4/3/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 22Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Brechin22%
×Draw24%
Stirling Albion55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.02
Stirling Albion
1.76

Stirling Albion creates 73% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 117 away

creates per match

Brechin
0.72
Stirling Albion
1.40

allows per match

Brechin
2.12
Stirling Albion
1.32

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
45%
Brechin or Stirling Albion
76%
Draw or Stirling Albion
78%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
8%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
64%
Brechin 2+ goals
27%
Brechin 3+ goals
8%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
83%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
52%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
29%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.12 · 25 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.32 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.72 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Stirling Albion attack 1.40 + Brechin defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brechin scores more
22%
level
24%
Stirling Albion scores more
55%

Stirling Albion at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brechin vs Stirling Albion — Match Preview

Brechin face Stirling Albion on April 3, 2021 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Brechin host Stirling Albion at Glebe Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.