Stirling Albion 2–4 Brechin: Result & Stats

Stirling Albion

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Brechin

D. Mackin 36'

S. Heaver 7'

L. McMinn 74'

P. McManus 56', 40' (pen)

K. Inglis 31'

12/7/2019

League Two · Round 15Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stirling Albion50%

×Draw24%

Brechin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling AlbionExpected goals in this matchBrechin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.19

Stirling Albion

1.74

Brechin

1.19

Stirling Albion creates 46% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 26 away

1.33

creates per match

1.04

1.33

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Stirling Albion

1.33

Brechin

1.04

allows per match

Stirling Albion

1.33

Brechin

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Brechin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw

74%

Stirling Albion or Brechin

76%

Draw or Brechin

50%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

27%

Brechin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

82%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

52%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

25%

Brechin 1+ goals

70%

Brechin 2+ goals

33%

Brechin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

66%

Brechin (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 116 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 1.33 + Brechin defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Brechin attack 1.04 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stirling Albion scores more

50%

level

24%

Brechin scores more

26%

Stirling Albion at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Heaver↳ R. McGeachie

9'

19'

29'

31'

36'

40'

40'

P. McManusPenalty

43'

S. Reekie

56'

P. McManus↳ D. Hill

64'

J. Peters← S. Heaver

70'

D. Docherty← D. NGuene

74'

L. McMinn

84'

M. Knox← K. Inglis

87'

M. Wright← D. Wilson

89'

R. Crawford← P. McManus

90'

R. McGeachie

Stirling

Brechin

1

⚽

McMinn

5

A

Hill

6

Page

2

Reekie

10

A

4

3

8

11

⚽

▼

Inglis

9

⚽2

▼

7

1

5

2

A

McGeachie

6

McGregor

11

Willis

4

▼

Wilson

7

Jardine

3

Thomson

9

⚽

▼

Heaver

10

⚽

Mackin

8

A

▼

NGuene

Manager: K. Rutkiewicz

64'▲J. Peters←▼S. Heaver

70'▲D. Docherty←▼D. NGuene

87'▲M. Wright←▼D. Wilson

Stirling Albion substitutes

19Peters15Docherty18Wright12Banner16Duffy17Binnie14Scott

Manager: M. Wilson

84'▲M. Knox←▼K. Inglis

89'▲R. Crawford←▼P. McManus

Brechin substitutes

16Knox18Crawford21Sinclair15Watt14McLaughlin12Duncanson17N'Goy

Match Recap: Stirling Albion vs Brechin

Brechin beat Stirling Albion 4-2 in League Two on December 7, 2019.

Goals: S. Heaver (7'), K. Inglis (31'), D. Mackin (36'), P. McManus (40' pen, 56'), L. McMinn (74').

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.

Stirling Albion vs Brechin — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stirling Albion vs Brechin