Stirling Albion 1–2 Brechin: Result & Stats

Stirling Albion

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Brechin

M. Stewart 44'

C. Tapping 84'

B. Melingui 17'

7/17/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Forthbank Stadium (Stirling)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Stirling Albion52%

×Draw21%

Brechin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling AlbionExpected goals in this matchBrechin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.45

Stirling Albion

2.07

Brechin

1.45

Stirling Albion creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

0.93

creates per match

0.50

2.40

allows per match

3.21

creates per match

Stirling Albion

0.93

Brechin

0.50

allows per match

Stirling Albion

2.40

Brechin

3.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Brechin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw

73%

Stirling Albion or Brechin

79%

Draw or Brechin

48%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

30%

Brechin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

87%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

61%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

34%

Brechin 1+ goals

77%

Brechin 2+ goals

42%

Brechin 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

66%

Brechin (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Brechin away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.93 + Brechin defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.07

Brechin attack 0.50 + Stirling Albion defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stirling Albion scores more

52%

level

21%

Brechin scores more

27%

Stirling Albion at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

B. Melingui↳ P. McLean

35'

P. MacDonald← L. Hamilton

44'

M. Stewart

46'

K. Fell← K. Moon

55'

K. Orsi← B. Melingui

70'

J. Sinclair← J. Henry

84'

M. McDonald← D. Docherty

84'

C. Tapping

Stirling

Brechin

1

Brennan

5

Hill

2

A

McLean

3

Burns

15

Morena

8

⚽

Tapping

14

Smith

12

Lynas

18

▼

Henry

11

Shields

17

⚽

▼

1

5

2

4

▼

Hamilton

6

Banner

10

▼

Moon

11

▼

Docherty

7

⚽

3

9

8

Manager: D. MacKay

35'▲P. MacDonald←▼L. Hamilton

46'▲K. Fell←▼K. Moon

84'▲M. McDonald←▼D. Docherty

Stirling Albion substitutes

12MacDonald14Fell19McDonald16Watson17Law18Young15Thomson

Manager: D. Dods

55'▲K. Orsi←▼B. Melingui

70'▲J. Sinclair←▼J. Henry

Brechin substitutes

7Orsi10Sinclair6Spark16Tapping