Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stilon Gorzów vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
FT
1 – 2
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stilon Gorzów32%
×Draw23%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stilon Gorzów
1.43
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.74

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.37
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.97

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.51
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.48

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw
55%
Stilon Gorzów or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
77%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
68%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
14%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
76%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
42%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
17%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
82%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
52%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
41%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more
32%
level
23%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
45%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Stilon Gorzów 1–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Stilon Gorzów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.