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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Stilon Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
11/19/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała52%
×Draw22%
Stilon Gorzów26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.90
Stilon Gorzów
1.29

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 47% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.28
Stilon Gorzów
1.45

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.14
Stilon Gorzów
1.51

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par
Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Stilon Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw
74%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Stilon Gorzów
78%
Draw or Stilon Gorzów
48%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
29%
Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
85%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
56%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
29%
Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
72%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
37%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
66%
Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
52%
level
22%
Stilon Gorzów scores more
26%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Stilon Gorzów

Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Stilon Gorzów 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.