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Stilon Gorzów vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
6/7/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stilon Gorzów43%
×Draw24%
Pawłowice Śląskie33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stilon Gorzów
1.58
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.35

Stilon Gorzów creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.37
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.51
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw
67%
Stilon Gorzów or Pawłowice Śląskie
76%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
57%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
22%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
79%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
47%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
21%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
74%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
39%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
57%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more
43%
level
24%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
33%

Stilon Gorzów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stilon Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Stilon Gorzów 1–3 Pawłowice Śląskie

Pawłowice Śląskie beat Stilon Gorzów 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.