Pawłowice Śląskie 3–0 Stilon Gorzów: Result & Stats

Pawłowice Śląskie

FT

3 – 0

Stilon Gorzów

5/27/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie41%

×Draw23%

Stilon Gorzów35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pawłowice ŚląskieExpected goals in this matchStilon Gorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.54

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.68

Stilon Gorzów

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

1.85

creates per match

1.45

1.63

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.85

Stilon Gorzów

1.45

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.63

Stilon Gorzów

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Stilon Gorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw

65%

Pawłowice Śląskie or Stilon Gorzów

77%

Draw or Stilon Gorzów

59%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

21%

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

81%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

50%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

24%

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals

79%

Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals

45%

Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

54%

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

41%

level

23%

Stilon Gorzów scores more

35%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff