Stilon Gorzów 4–3 Odra Wodzislaw: Result & Stats

Stilon Gorzów

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Odra Wodzislaw

5/13/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stilon Gorzów47%

×Draw23%

Odra Wodzislaw30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stilon GorzówExpected goals in this matchOdra Wodzislaw

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.43

Stilon Gorzów

1.83

Odra Wodzislaw

1.43

Stilon Gorzów creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.37

creates per match

1.35

1.51

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów

1.37

Odra Wodzislaw

1.35

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów

1.51

Odra Wodzislaw

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw

70%

Stilon Gorzów or Odra Wodzislaw

77%

Draw or Odra Wodzislaw

53%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+

26%

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals

84%

Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals

54%

Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals

28%

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

76%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

42%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)

61%

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more

47%

level

23%

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

30%

Stilon Gorzów at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stilon Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff