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Odra Wodzislaw vs Stilon Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
10/8/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw34%
×Draw23%
Stilon Gorzów43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.59
Stilon Gorzów
1.81

Stilon Gorzów creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Stilon Gorzów
1.45

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Stilon Gorzów
1.51

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Stilon Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
57%
Odra Wodzislaw or Stilon Gorzów
77%
Draw or Stilon Gorzów
66%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
16%
Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
80%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
47%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
21%
Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
84%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
54%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
44%
Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
34%
level
23%
Stilon Gorzów scores more
43%

Stilon Gorzów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stilon Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Wodzislaw vs Stilon Gorzów

Stilon Gorzów beat Odra Wodzislaw 6-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.