Stilon Gorzów 1–5 Kluczbork: Result & Stats

Stilon Gorzów

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Kluczbork

9/21/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stilon Gorzów36%

×Draw24%

Kluczbork40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stilon GorzówExpected goals in this matchKluczbork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.54

Stilon Gorzów

1.44

Kluczbork

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

1.37

creates per match

1.57

1.51

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów

1.37

Kluczbork

1.57

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów

1.51

Kluczbork

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Kluczbork →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw

60%

Stilon Gorzów or Kluczbork

76%

Draw or Kluczbork

64%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+

17%

Kluczbork wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals

76%

Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals

42%

Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals

18%

Kluczbork 1+ goals

79%

Kluczbork 2+ goals

45%

Kluczbork 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)

47%

Kluczbork (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Kluczbork defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kluczbork attack 1.57 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more

36%

level

24%

Kluczbork scores more

40%

Kluczbork at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff