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Kluczbork vs Stilon Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
4/19/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kluczbork45%
×Draw23%
Stilon Gorzów31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
1.73
Stilon Gorzów
1.41

Kluczbork creates 23% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Stilon Gorzów
1.45

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Stilon Gorzów
1.51

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Stilon Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
69%
Kluczbork or Stilon Gorzów
77%
Draw or Stilon Gorzów
55%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
24%
Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
82%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
52%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
25%
Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
76%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
41%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
59%
Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kluczbork scores more
45%
level
23%
Stilon Gorzów scores more
31%

Kluczbork at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kluczbork vs Stilon Gorzów

Kluczbork beat Stilon Gorzów 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.