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Stilon Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
FT
2 – 1
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
9/7/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stilon Gorzów45%
×Draw24%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stilon Gorzów
1.65
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.32

Stilon Gorzów creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.37
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.13

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.51
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.93

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw
69%
Stilon Gorzów or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
76%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
55%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
23%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
81%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
49%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
23%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
73%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
38%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
60%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.13 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more
45%
level
24%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
31%

Stilon Gorzów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stilon Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stilon Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Stilon Gorzów beat Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.