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Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Stilon Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
4/5/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra39%
×Draw25%
Stilon Gorzów36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.48
Stilon Gorzów
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.46
Stilon Gorzów
1.45

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.34
Stilon Gorzów
1.51

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par
Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Stilon Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw
64%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Stilon Gorzów
75%
Draw or Stilon Gorzów
61%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
19%
Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
77%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
43%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
19%
Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
75%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
41%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
52%
Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
39%
level
25%
Stilon Gorzów scores more
36%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Stilon Gorzów

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra and Stilon Gorzów drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jelenia Góra.