Stilon Gorzów vs Górnik Polkowice

Stilon Gorzów

Preview

16:00

Górnik Polkowice

5/1/2027

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 29

Big match

42%

Górnik Polkowice

model favours

34%25%42%

Górnik Polkowice score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stilon Gorzów34%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stilon GorzówExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.53

Stilon Gorzów

1.35

Górnik Polkowice

1.53

Górnik Polkowice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

1.37

creates per match

1.55

1.51

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów

1.37

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów

1.51

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw

58%

Stilon Gorzów or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

66%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+

15%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals

74%

Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals

39%

Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals

15%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

78%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

45%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)

45%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more

34%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

42%

Górnik Polkowice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 83% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches
Górnik Polkowice have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
67% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Stilon Gorzów win just 19% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Gorzów

LLLDW

Polkowice

WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff