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Stilon Gorzów vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
3/15/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stilon Gorzów34%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stilon Gorzów
1.35
Górnik Polkowice
1.53

Górnik Polkowice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.37
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.51
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw
58%
Stilon Gorzów or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
66%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
15%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
74%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
39%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
15%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
78%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
45%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
45%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more
34%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
42%

Górnik Polkowice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stilon Gorzów vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Stilon Gorzów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.