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Górnik Polkowice vs Stilon Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
8/21/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice44%
×Draw24%
Stilon Gorzów32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.61
Stilon Gorzów
1.35

Górnik Polkowice creates 19% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Stilon Gorzów
1.45

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Stilon Gorzów
1.51

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Stilon Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
68%
Górnik Polkowice or Stilon Gorzów
76%
Draw or Stilon Gorzów
56%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
22%
Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
80%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
48%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
22%
Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
74%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
39%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
58%
Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
44%
level
24%
Stilon Gorzów scores more
32%

Górnik Polkowice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Stilon Gorzów

Górnik Polkowice and Stilon Gorzów drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.