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Stilon Gorzów vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
FT
1 – 2
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
3/11/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stilon Gorzów41%
×Draw26%
Chrobry Głogów II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stilon Gorzów
1.42
Chrobry Głogów II
1.25

Stilon Gorzów creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.37
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.51
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw
67%
Stilon Gorzów or Chrobry Głogów II
74%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
59%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
19%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
76%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
41%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
17%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
71%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
36%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
55%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more
41%
level
26%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
33%

Stilon Gorzów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stilon Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stilon Gorzów vs Chrobry Głogów II

Chrobry Głogów II beat Stilon Gorzów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.