Chrobry Głogów II 2–3 Stilon Gorzów: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Stilon Gorzów

M. Bartosz 83'

M. Jozwiak 28'

M. Jandziak 71' (OG)

E. Drozdowicz 52', 3'

8/13/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II28%

×Draw21%

Stilon Gorzów50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry Głogów IIExpected goals in this matchStilon Gorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.05

Chrobry Głogów II

1.49

Stilon Gorzów

2.05

Stilon Gorzów creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

1.45

2.65

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

Stilon Gorzów

1.45

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II

2.65

Stilon Gorzów

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Stilon Gorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw

50%

Chrobry Głogów II or Stilon Gorzów

79%

Draw or Stilon Gorzów

72%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

13%

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

77%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

44%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

19%

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals

87%

Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals

61%

Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

36%

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.49

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

28%

level

21%

Stilon Gorzów scores more

50%

Stilon Gorzów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stilon Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

E. Drozdowicz

28'

M. Jozwiak

52'

E. Drozdowicz

71'

M. JandziakOwn goal

83'

M. Bartosz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff