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Stevenage vs Stockport County — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
Preview
15:00
Stockport County
Stockport County
12/12/2026League OneLeague One · Round 19Lamex Stadium
Big match
43%
Stevenage
model favours
43%28%29%

Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Stevenage43%
×Draw28%
Stockport County29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.32
Stockport County
1.02

Stevenage creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.14
Stockport County
1.26

allows per match

Stevenage
0.79
Stockport County
1.51

finishing

Stevenage-0.25scores less
Stockport County-0.18scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
71%
Stevenage or Stockport County
72%
Draw or Stockport County
57%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
20%
Stockport County wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
73%
Stevenage 2+ goals
38%
Stevenage 3+ goals
15%
Stockport County 1+ goals
64%
Stockport County 2+ goals
27%
Stockport County 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
60%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.79 · 9 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.14 + Stockport County defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stockport County attack 1.26 + Stevenage defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stevenage scores more
43%
level
28%
Stockport County scores more
29%

Stevenage at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
Stockport County
Balanced
44%Possession54%
64%Pass accuracy76%
10.4Shots13.1
1.06xGBiggest gap1.43
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StevenageStockport County

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Stevenage
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 50%
0–20–12–13–10–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stevenage
LDLLW
County
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stevenage host Stockport County

December 12, 2026: Stevenage take on Stockport County in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stevenage host Stockport County at Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.