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Stevenage vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
L. Norris 90'
M. Smith 90+2'
C. Hendry 80'
S. Mallan 65'
3/25/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 38The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage38%
×Draw27%
Salford City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.25
Salford City
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 156 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
65%
Stevenage or Salford City
73%
Draw or Salford City
62%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
17%
Salford City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
71%
Stevenage 2+ goals
36%
Stevenage 3+ goals
13%
Salford City 1+ goals
69%
Salford City 2+ goals
33%
Salford City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
52%
Salford City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Salford City attack 1.31 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stevenage scores more
38%
level
27%
Salford City scores more
35%

Stevenage at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
C. HendrySalford CitySalford City · F
7.9

Match Events

42'
Ryan Leak
58'
Luke Norris
65'
S. Mallan↳ E. Watt
71'
L. Shephard← M. Lund
73'
J. Forster-Caskey← J. Taylor
80'
Alex Cairns
80'
C. Hendry
82'
Jordan Roberts
83'
D. Horgan← A. Gilbey
85'
L. Barry← C. McAleny
90+1'
D. Rose← K. Smith
90+1'
M. Smith← C. Hendry
90'
L. Norris↳ J. Reid
90+2'
M. Smith↳ L. Shephard

Possession

44%Stevenage

Shots

16Stevenage

Pass accuracy

47%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageSalford
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots6
8Corners3
14Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots6
7On Target4
6Off Target2
3Blocked0
10Inside Box4
6Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
265Total Passes364
142Accurate Passes219
54%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
8Offsides1

League Two: Stevenage 1–3 Salford City

Salford City beat Stevenage 3-1 in League Two on March 25, 2023.

Goals: S. Mallan (65'), C. Hendry (80'), L. Norris (90'), M. Smith (90+2').

Salford City controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 16.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.