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Salford City vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
J. Turnbull 34'
12/18/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 22The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Salford City45%
×Draw28%
Stevenage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.32
Stevenage
0.97

Salford City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 100 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Salford City
1.14
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
73%
Salford City or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
55%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
21%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
73%
Salford City 2+ goals
38%
Salford City 3+ goals
15%
Stevenage 1+ goals
62%
Stevenage 2+ goals
25%
Stevenage 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
62%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salford City scores more
45%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
27%

Salford City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
J. TurnbullSalford CitySalford City · D
8.2

Match Events

7'
Ashley Hunter
34'
J. Turnbull↳ A. Hunter
58'
J. Reid← C. Lines
69'
Luke Prosser
73'
T. Wright← C. McAleny
80'
E. Osborne← O. Cochrane
82'
L. Shephard← A. Hunter
83'
A. Oteh← T. Elliott
90+4'
Elliot Osborne

Possession

53%Salford

Shots

18Salford

Pass accuracy

51%Salford

Statistics

SalfordStevenage
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots19
3Corners7
10Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots19
6On Target3
8Off Target7
4Blocked9
11Inside Box12
7Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
400Total Passes362
277Accurate Passes240
69%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Salford City vs Stevenage

Salford City beat Stevenage 1-0 in League Two on December 18, 2021.

Goals: J. Turnbull (34').

Salford City controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 19.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.