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Stevenage vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
H. Cornick 24'
D. Phillips 19'
J. Stockley 10'
2/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 33Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Stevenage55%
×Draw28%
Port Vale17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.36
Port Vale
0.62

Stevenage creates 119% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.13
Port Vale
0.66

allows per match

Stevenage
0.58
Port Vale
1.60

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
83%
Stevenage or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
45%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
27%
Port Vale wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
74%
Stevenage 2+ goals
39%
Stevenage 3+ goals
16%
Port Vale 1+ goals
46%
Port Vale 2+ goals
13%
Port Vale 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
76%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.13 + Port Vale defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Port Vale attack 0.66 + Stevenage defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stevenage scores more
55%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
17%

Stevenage at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. StockleyPort ValePort Vale · F
7.3

Match Events

9'
Louis Thompson
10'
J. Stockley↳ E. Campbell
15'
Carl Piergianni
19'
D. Phillips
24'
H. Cornick
33'
J. Reid← H. Cornick
45+8'
Andre Gray
45'
Jayden Stockley
51'
M. Sherif← J. Stockley
60'
F. Ojo← T. Magloire
60'
B. Waine← A. Gray
64'
J. Houghton← D. Phillips
65'
D. Kemp← L. Thompson
65'
J. Roberts← M. Phillips
90+4'
Harvey White
90+1'
D. Sweeney← S. Earley
90'
J. Lawrence-Gabriel← Kyle John

Possession

53%Stevenage

Shots

16Stevenage

Pass accuracy

53%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenagePort
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots5
6Corners1
11Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots5
7On Target1
8Off Target3
1Blocked1
11Inside Box3
5Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
368Total Passes328
253Accurate Passes198
69%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Port Vale

Stevenage beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on February 17, 2026.

Goals: J. Stockley (10'), D. Phillips (19'), H. Cornick (24').

Stevenage controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Lamex Stadium in Stevenage.