Port Vale 1–2 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

L. Tolaj 36'

J. Reid 90', 88'

8/19/2025

League One · Round 4Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Port Vale40%

×Draw29%

Stevenage31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.01

Port Vale

1.19

Stevenage

1.01

Port Vale creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

0.91

creates per match

0.92

1.09

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Port Vale

0.91

Stevenage

0.92

allows per match

Port Vale

1.09

Stevenage

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

69%

Port Vale or Stevenage

71%

Draw or Stevenage

60%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

17%

Stevenage wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

70%

Port Vale 2+ goals

33%

Port Vale 3+ goals

12%

Stevenage 1+ goals

64%

Stevenage 2+ goals

27%

Stevenage 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

56%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.91 + Stevenage defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Stevenage attack 0.92 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Port Vale scores more

40%

level

29%

Stevenage scores more

31%

Port Vale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Reid

Stevenage · F

8.9

Match Events

20'

Funso Ojo

36'

L. Tolaj↳ J. Shipley

66'

B. Garrity← J. Shipley

67'

M. Faal← R. Curtis

69'

Jordan Houghton

71'

D. Sweeney← P. Patterson

71'

D. Phillips← J. Houghton

71'

G. Ahadme← J. Roberts

75'

J. Headley← L. Gordon

75'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel← M. Clark

82'

B. Heneghan← F. Ojo

88'

J. Reid

90+2'

Charlie Goode

90+4'

L. Freestone← D. Butler

90+7'

C. Campbell← J. Reid

90'

J. Reid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortStevenage

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots11

4Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target3

8Off Target6

1Blocked2

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

353Total Passes359

271Accurate Passes261

77%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1