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Stevenage vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
Preview
18:45
Plymouth
Plymouth
10/20/2026League OneLeague One · Round 12Lamex Stadium
40%
Plymouth
model favours
33%26%40%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Stevenage33%
×Draw26%
Plymouth40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.23
Plymouth
1.38

Plymouth creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.24
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Stevenage
0.75
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Stevenage-0.24scores less
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
60%
Stevenage or Plymouth
74%
Draw or Plymouth
67%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
14%
Plymouth wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
71%
Stevenage 2+ goals
35%
Stevenage 3+ goals
13%
Plymouth 1+ goals
75%
Plymouth 2+ goals
40%
Plymouth 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
45%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.24 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Stevenage defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stevenage scores more
33%
level
26%
Plymouth scores more
40%

Plymouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Style contrast — Stevenage play Direct / counter-attacking, Plymouth Attack-heavy
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
44%Possession49%
64%Pass accuracy68%
10.5Shots13.5
1.13xGBiggest gap2.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StevenagePlymouth

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Stevenage
1
Draws
3
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 75%
0–11–11–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stevenage
LDLLW
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stevenage vs Plymouth — Match Preview

Stevenage face Plymouth on October 20, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stevenage host Plymouth at Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.