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Plymouth vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
N. Canavan 90+6'
T. Denton 23' (OG)
E. List 60'
12/29/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Plymouth54%
×Draw26%
Stevenage20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.54
Stevenage
0.82

Plymouth creates 88% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 100 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.85
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Plymouth
0.85
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
80%
Plymouth or Stevenage
74%
Draw or Stevenage
46%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
28%
Stevenage wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
79%
Plymouth 2+ goals
45%
Plymouth 3+ goals
20%
Stevenage 1+ goals
56%
Stevenage 2+ goals
20%
Stevenage 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
73%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.85 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Plymouth defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Plymouth scores more
54%
level
26%
Stevenage scores more
20%

Plymouth at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
N. CanavanPlymouthPlymouth · D
7.9

Match Events

23'
T. DentonOwn goal
43'
Antoni Sarcevic
59'
D. Telford← B. Clarke
60'
Dean Parrett
60'
E. List↳ B. Nugent
65'
Niall Canavan
68'
Joel Grant← Z. Rudden
72'
E. Sonupe← J. Cowley
78'
M. Timlin← E. List
80'
C. Grant← G. Cooper
88'
Ben Nugent
90'
Paul Taylor
90+2'
P. Taylor← T. Denton
90+6'
N. Canavan↳ Joel Grant

Possession

64%Plymouth

Shots

19Plymouth

Pass accuracy

56%Plymouth

Statistics

PlymouthStevenage
Overview
64%Possession36%
19Total Shots8
13Corners0
9Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots8
7On Target3
6Off Target4
6Blocked1
13Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
480Total Passes281
374Accurate Passes175
78%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

League Two: Plymouth 2–1 Stevenage

Plymouth beat Stevenage 2-1 in League Two on December 29, 2019.

Goals: T. Denton (23' o.g.), E. List (60'), N. Canavan (90+6').

Plymouth controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.