Stevenage 1–2 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League Two

Stevenage

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Plymouth

C. Carter 89'

R. Hardie 85'

B. Moore 47'

1/25/2020

League Two · Round 29The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Stevenage36%

×Draw28%

Plymouth36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.19

Stevenage

1.18

Plymouth

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 24 away

1.31

creates per match

1.33

1.04

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Plymouth

1.33

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Plymouth

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

64%

Stevenage or Plymouth

72%

Draw or Plymouth

64%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

15%

Plymouth wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

69%

Stevenage 2+ goals

33%

Stevenage 3+ goals

12%

Plymouth 1+ goals

70%

Plymouth 2+ goals

33%

Plymouth 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

50%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Stevenage scores more

36%

level

28%

Plymouth scores more

36%

Stevenage at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Carter

Stevenage · M

7.5

Match Events

47'

59'

80'

83'

85'

R. Hardie↳ A. Sarcevic

88'

S. Jackson← T. Soares

89'

C. Carter↳ J. Cassidy

90'

Scott Wootton

90+1'

Joel Grant← L. Jephcott

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenagePlymouth

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots7

2Corners3

6Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target2

4Blocked3

12Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

343Total Passes452

206Accurate Passes306

60%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4