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Stevenage vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Stevenage
Stevenage
Preview
19:45
Peterborough
Peterborough
2/9/2027League OneLeague One · Round 30Lamex Stadium
Big match
46%
Stevenage
model favours
46%28%26%

Stevenage sit 6, Peterborough 18 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Stevenage46%
×Draw28%
Peterborough26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.36
Peterborough
0.95

Stevenage creates 43% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.12
Peterborough
1.29

allows per match

Stevenage
0.60
Peterborough
1.60

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
74%
Stevenage or Peterborough
72%
Draw or Peterborough
54%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
22%
Peterborough wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
74%
Stevenage 2+ goals
39%
Stevenage 3+ goals
16%
Peterborough 1+ goals
61%
Peterborough 2+ goals
25%
Peterborough 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
64%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.12 + Peterborough defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Peterborough attack 1.29 + Stevenage defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stevenage scores more
46%
level
28%
Peterborough scores more
26%

Stevenage at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Stevenage play Direct / counter-attacking, Peterborough Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
Peterborough
Attack-heavy
43%Possession57%
62%Pass accuracy79%
9.6Shots13.1
1.11xGBiggest gap1.70
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StevenagePeterborough

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Stevenage
1
Draws
2
Peterborough
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%
1–01–01–10–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stevenage
LLWDW
Peterborough
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stevenage vs Peterborough — Match Preview

Stevenage face Peterborough on February 9, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stevenage host Peterborough at Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.