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Peterborough vs Stevenage — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
K. Poku 90+4'
D. O'Brien-Brady 5'
L. Thompson 64'
10/5/2024League OneLeague One · Round 10Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Peterborough50%
×Draw24%
Stevenage26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.68
Stevenage
1.13

Peterborough creates 49% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 25 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.87
Stevenage
0.92

allows per match

Peterborough
1.33
Stevenage
1.48

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
74%
Peterborough or Stevenage
76%
Draw or Stevenage
50%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
27%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
81%
Peterborough 2+ goals
50%
Peterborough 3+ goals
24%
Stevenage 1+ goals
68%
Stevenage 2+ goals
31%
Stevenage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
66%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.87 + Stevenage defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.68

Stevenage attack 0.92 + Peterborough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Peterborough scores more
50%
level
24%
Stevenage scores more
26%

Peterborough at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
K. PokuPeterboroughPeterborough · M
8.3

Match Events

5'
D. O'Brien-Brady↳ K. Poku
11'
L. Freestone← N. Thompson
24'
Dan Butler
46'
J. Randall← C. Hayes
46'
J. Dornelly← S. Curtis
62'
T. Simpson← J. Young
62'
H. White← E. King
64'
L. Thompson↳ H. White
68'
Oscar Wallin
70'
Lewis Freestone
78'
Archie Collins
78'
R. De Havilland← D. OBrien-Brady
87'
N. Freeman← D. Phillips
87'
D. Kemp← L. Thompson
90+6'
James Dornelly
90+4'
K. Poku

Possession

58%Peterborough

Shots

12Peterborough

Pass accuracy

52%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughStevenage
Overview
58%Possession42%
12Total Shots17
8Corners9
12Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots17
3On Target7
4Off Target4
5Blocked6
10Inside Box11
2Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
440Total Passes313
364Accurate Passes244
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Stevenage

Peterborough beat Stevenage 2-1 in League One on October 5, 2024.

Goals: D. O'Brien-Brady (5'), L. Thompson (64'), K. Poku (90+4').

Peterborough controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.