Stevenage 1–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

D. Kemp 55'

C. Hayes 67'

2/15/2025

League One · Round 32Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Stevenage48%

×Draw28%

Peterborough24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.86

Stevenage

1.36

Peterborough

0.86

Stevenage creates 58% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 45 away

1.12

creates per match

1.13

0.60

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Stevenage

1.12

Peterborough

1.13

allows per match

Stevenage

0.60

Peterborough

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

76%

Stevenage or Peterborough

72%

Draw or Peterborough

52%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

23%

Peterborough wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

74%

Stevenage 2+ goals

39%

Stevenage 3+ goals

16%

Peterborough 1+ goals

58%

Peterborough 2+ goals

21%

Peterborough 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

67%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.12 + Peterborough defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Peterborough attack 1.13 + Stevenage defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stevenage scores more

48%

level

28%

Peterborough scores more

24%

Stevenage at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

E. King

Stevenage · M

7.7

Match Events

33'

Hector Kyprianou

49'

Lewis Freestone

55'

D. Kemp↳ E. King

62'

C. Hayes← C. Conn-Clarke

65'

Mahamadou Susoho← A. Collins

67'

C. Hayes↳ M. Mothersille

69'

N. Freeman← K. Edwards

70'

E. List← J. Roberts

71'

Adetayo Edun

86'

H. White← E. King

86'

D. Phillips← L. Thompson

86'

J. Reid← B. Hanlan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenagePeterborough

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots9

3Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots9

3On Target2

4Off Target3

5Blocked4

7Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

332Total Passes466

231Accurate Passes379

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

6Offsides4

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Peterborough

Stevenage and Peterborough drew 1-1 in League One on February 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Kemp (55'), C. Hayes (67').

Peterborough controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.

Stevenage vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Peterborough