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Stevenage vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
10/31/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 10The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage42%
×Draw27%
Grimsby30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.34
Grimsby
1.09

Stevenage creates 23% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 138 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Grimsby
1.15

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Grimsby
1.38

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
70%
Stevenage or Grimsby
73%
Draw or Grimsby
58%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
20%
Grimsby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
74%
Stevenage 2+ goals
39%
Stevenage 3+ goals
15%
Grimsby 1+ goals
66%
Grimsby 2+ goals
30%
Grimsby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
58%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stevenage scores more
42%
level
27%
Grimsby scores more
30%

Stevenage at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. McKeownGrimsbyGrimsby · G
8.2

Match Events

30'
V. Gomis← J. Tilley
53'
Terry Taylor
58'
J. Hanson← M. Green
63'
D. Newton← O. Akinwande
68'
M. Gibson← K. Bennett
81'
A. Oteh← M. Dinanga
84'
Ben Coker

Possession

35%Stevenage

Shots

19Stevenage

Pass accuracy

44%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageGrimsby
Overview
35%Possession65%
19Total Shots6
9Corners6
13Fouls17
Shots
19Total Shots6
6On Target2
6Off Target2
7Blocked2
12Inside Box5
7Outside Box1
Passing
35%Possession65%
275Total Passes522
155Accurate Passes378
56%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Grimsby

Stevenage and Grimsby drew 0-0 in League Two on October 31, 2020.

Grimsby controlled possession (65%) and registered 6 shots to 19.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.