Grimsby 1–2 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League Two

Grimsby

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stevenage

S. Payne 90+3'

M. Stevens 90+5'

E. List 42'

1/30/2021

League Two · Round 27Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Grimsby40%

×Draw28%

Stevenage32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.07

Grimsby

1.24

Stevenage

1.07

Grimsby creates 16% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 100 away

1.24

creates per match

0.80

1.34

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Grimsby

1.24

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Grimsby

1.34

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

68%

Grimsby or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

60%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

18%

Stevenage wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

71%

Grimsby 2+ goals

35%

Grimsby 3+ goals

13%

Stevenage 1+ goals

66%

Stevenage 2+ goals

29%

Stevenage 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

56%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 141 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.24 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Grimsby defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grimsby scores more

40%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

32%

Grimsby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Rose

Grimsby · M

7.7

Match Events

42'

64'

68'

68'

70'

73'

75'

J. Smith← A. Read

76'

J. Martin← J. Aitchison

80'

D. Preston← S. Habergham

81'

L. Spokes← R. Menayese

89'

R. Hutton← B. Coker

90+3'

S. Payne↳ J. Matete

90+5'

M. Stevens↳ L. Wildin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyStevenage

Overview

62%Possession38%

8Total Shots10

6Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target2

3Off Target7

3Blocked1

5Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

529Total Passes304

380Accurate Passes166

72%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3