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Stevenage vs Doncaster — League Two 2024

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
J. Roberts 13'
4/18/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 43The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stevenage39%
×Draw27%
Doncaster35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.31
Doncaster
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.33
Doncaster
1.46

allows per match

Stevenage
1.00
Doncaster
1.29

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
65%
Stevenage or Doncaster
73%
Draw or Doncaster
61%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
17%
Doncaster wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
73%
Stevenage 2+ goals
38%
Stevenage 3+ goals
14%
Doncaster 1+ goals
71%
Doncaster 2+ goals
35%
Doncaster 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
53%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.33 + Doncaster defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Doncaster attack 1.46 + Stevenage defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stevenage scores more
39%
level
27%
Doncaster scores more
35%

Stevenage at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
D. RoseStevenageStevenage · F
7.7

Match Events

13'
J. Roberts
46'
J. Goodman← K. Agard
46'
R. Williams← B. Nelson
56'
J. Reeves← J. Taylor
63'
Luther James-Wildin
77'
Bobby Faulkner
78'
T. Miller← K. Hurst
84'
Danny Rose
88'
M. Bostwick← J. Forster-Caskey
90+5'
Jamie Reid

Possession

45%Stevenage

Shots

12Stevenage

Pass accuracy

47%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageDoncaster
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots2
3Corners0
10Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots2
3On Target1
4Off Target1
5Blocked0
9Inside Box1
3Outside Box1
Passing
45%Possession55%
350Total Passes428
189Accurate Passes261
54%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Doncaster

Stevenage beat Doncaster 1-0 in League Two on April 18, 2023.

Goals: J. Roberts (13').

Doncaster controlled possession (55%) and registered 2 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.