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Doncaster vs Stevenage — League One 2025

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
B. Sharp 69'
M. Phillips 9'
4/25/2026League OneLeague One · Round 45Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Doncaster41%
×Draw27%
Stevenage31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.34
Stevenage
1.13

Doncaster creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.21
Stevenage
0.92

allows per match

Doncaster
1.34
Stevenage
1.48

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
69%
Doncaster or Stevenage
73%
Draw or Stevenage
59%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
19%
Stevenage wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
74%
Doncaster 2+ goals
39%
Doncaster 3+ goals
15%
Stevenage 1+ goals
68%
Stevenage 2+ goals
31%
Stevenage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
57%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.21 + Stevenage defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Stevenage attack 0.92 + Doncaster defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Doncaster scores more
41%
level
27%
Stevenage scores more
31%

Doncaster at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
C. GoodeStevenageStevenage · D
7.7

Match Events

9'
M. Phillips
45+3'
Jay McGrath
46'
B. Sharp← E. Lee
46'
H. Adelakun← S. Grehan
46'
J. Sterry← T. Nixon
60'
Saxon Earley
67'
D. Butler← S. Earley
69'
B. Sharp↳ H. Adelakun
72'
Jack Senior
76'
J. Houghton← L. Thompson
76'
B. Lubala← M. Phillips
77'
B. McCann← D. Robinson

Possession

63%Doncaster

Shots

12Doncaster

Pass accuracy

55%Doncaster

Statistics

DoncasterStevenage
Overview
63%Possession37%
12Total Shots8
2.21Expected Goals (xG)1.06
4Corners3
9Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots8
3On Target4
7Off Target2
2Blocked2
8Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
426Total Passes251
300Accurate Passes146
70%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides6

League One: Doncaster 1–1 Stevenage

Doncaster and Stevenage drew 1-1 in League One on April 25, 2026.

Goals: M. Phillips (9'), B. Sharp (69').

Doncaster controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster.