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Stevenage vs Derby — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Derby
Derby
10/28/2023League OneLeague One · Round 16The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Stevenage34%
×Draw29%
Derby36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.07
Derby
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 46 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.17
Derby
1.39

allows per match

Stevenage
0.84
Derby
0.98

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
64%
Stevenage or Derby
71%
Draw or Derby
66%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
13%
Derby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
66%
Stevenage 2+ goals
29%
Stevenage 3+ goals
9%
Derby 1+ goals
67%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
49%
Derby (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.17 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Derby attack 1.39 + Stevenage defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Stevenage scores more
34%
level
29%
Derby scores more
36%

Derby at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Stevenage 3–1 Derby

Stevenage beat Derby 3-1 in League One on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.