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Derby vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
2/17/2024League OneLeague One · Round 34Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby51%
×Draw26%
Stevenage22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.50
Stevenage
0.89

Derby creates 69% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 70 away

creates per match

Derby
1.76
Stevenage
0.94

allows per match

Derby
0.83
Stevenage
1.23

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
78%
Derby or Stevenage
74%
Draw or Stevenage
49%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
26%
Stevenage wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
78%
Derby 2+ goals
44%
Derby 3+ goals
19%
Stevenage 1+ goals
59%
Stevenage 2+ goals
22%
Stevenage 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
70%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Derby scores more
51%
level
26%
Stevenage scores more
22%

Derby at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Derby 1–0 Stevenage

Derby beat Stevenage 1-0 in League One on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.